Comparative Analysis:
20 AI Models on Post-AGI Economic Theory

A comprehensive examination of AI perspectives on economic transformation in the post-AGI era

📊 Identical Prompts • Qualitative Analysis • September 2025

Executive Summary

What happens when you ask 20 different AI models the same question about humanity's economic future?

20 AI Models Analyzed
6 Core Consensus Areas
100% Agree on Labor Disruption
30+ Years Timeline Range

⚡ Key Finding

While there's remarkable consensus on fundamental disruption AGI will cause to economic theory, models diverge significantly in their emphasis, tone, and specific predictions. The agreement on core transformations is nearly universal, but the paths to get there, governance structures needed, and ultimate human role show considerable variation.

Areas of Strong Consensus

Nearly universal agreement on six core economic transformations

🤖

Labor Obsolescence

Complete consensus that human labor will lose traditional economic value as cognitive and physical tasks become automated. This represents the most significant point of agreement across all 20 models.

📊

Material Scarcity Shift

Basic goods will become abundant while new forms of scarcity emerge around human attention, authentic experiences, meaning and purpose, and social connection.

💰

Money System Evolution

Financial systems will fundamentally transform as traditional economic structures adapt to new realities of abundance. However, models diverge on what replaces current systems.

Computational Resources

Processing power and advanced computing capabilities will become increasingly valuable—possibly the primary scarce resource in a post-AGI economy.

🔒

Data Rights

Ownership and control of personal information will emerge as critical economic considerations, with some models positioning this as equivalent to property rights in previous eras.

📍

Location Value

Unique physical locations will retain and potentially increase in value despite digital transformation. Experiences tied to place cannot be fully replicated.

Emerging Economic Concepts

Post-scarcity economics shifts from resource allocation to meaning allocation

🎯

New Value Stores

Access rights (not ownership), reputation across domains, attention as ultimate scarce resource, and curation ability in an age of infinite content.

🤝

Evolution of Reciprocity

From transactional exchanges to relational networks: gift economies at scale, contribution-based status systems, and long-term reciprocal relationships.

💵

Universal Basic Income

Seen as necessity rather than policy option by 16 of 20 models. Disagreement centers on implementation mechanisms, not whether it's needed.

Model-Specific Contributions

Each AI brought unique perspectives and frameworks to the analysis

GPT-5: Academic Rigor

Extensive citation-heavy academic approach with existential risk framing

Approach
Comprehensive historical parallels with dual narrative structure (optimistic/pessimistic scenarios)
Unique Contribution
Most thorough interdisciplinary integration—economics, philosophy, computer science, sociology
Timeline
Detailed predictions including specific milestones expected by 2040

Gemini 2.5 Pro: Ontological Depth

Mythological framework with extensive historical parallels

Unique Framework
"Juno's Reckoning"—money as warning/counsel rather than mere medium of exchange
Historical Depth
Most extensive historical parallels from barter systems to cryptocurrency
Focus
Emphasizes "ontological rupture"—fundamental nature of economic reality being rewritten

Claude Models: Risk & Innovation

Focus on existential risks, techno-feudalism, and new economic concepts

Claude 4 Opus
"Intelligence Economy" concept, "Robo Economicus" replacing Homo Economicus, "AGI Economic Trilemma"
Claude 4 Sonnet
Detailed reciprocity types: Custodial (AI caring for humans) and Experiential (shared experiences)
Key Warning
Psychological inertia identified as major obstacle to successful transition

Qwen3-235B: Experience Design

Focus on experience design and neo-craftsmanship

Paradigm Shift
From resource allocation to experience design as core economic activity
Vision
Gift economies at scale via AGI coordination capabilities
Human Role
Neo-craftsmanship—humans as creative directors even when AI handles execution

GLM-4.5: Technical Specifications

Detailed analysis of implementation mechanisms and bottlenecks

Core Analysis
Most detailed examination of energy/compute bottlenecks and constraints
Scenarios
"Rails-first" (regulated infrastructure) vs "Platform feudalism" (corporate control)
Innovation
Demurrage and congestion pricing mechanisms for post-scarcity allocation

Additional Model Highlights

Other unique contributions to the analysis

Grok 4
"Prisoner's Dilemma amplified" game theory, "Memory economies," Bitcoin-AI synergy
Julius.ai
Two-tier market: AGI-commodity vs human-premium sectors with detailed business models
Manus
Most balanced treatment, energy-based economy emphasis, psychological transition focus
Perplexity
Innovative table format for maximum clarity and accessibility

AGI Arrival Timeline Predictions

Significant divergence on when AGI will actually arrive

2030-2035
Optimistic (5 models): Rapid progress continues, key breakthroughs in the next 5-10 years enable AGI capabilities.
2035-2045
Moderate (8 models): Most common prediction range. Assumes steady progress with some obstacles but no fundamental roadblocks.
2045-2060
Conservative (4 models): Significant technical challenges remain. Hardware limitations and alignment problems slow progress.
Uncertain
Uncertain (3 models): Declined to predict specific timelines, citing too many unknowns and potential paradigm shifts.

Human Role in Post-AGI Economy

Models diverge sharply on what humans will actually do

🌟

Optimistic Vision

Models: Qwen, Emily, Grok

Humans as creative directors, meaning-creators, ethical governors, relationship builders, and experience designers. AI handles execution while humans provide vision.

⚠️

Pessimistic Warning

Models: Claude, Gemini, GPT-5

Risks of economic irrelevance, psychological atrophy, power concentration leading to techno-feudalism, and fundamental loss of agency and autonomy.

🎯

Pragmatic Middle

Models: Julius, GLM-4.5, Manus

New roles: AI-human collaboration specialists, experience curators, trust/authentication services, ethical oversight. Specific, actionable pathways.

🤔 Common Ground

All perspectives acknowledge radical adaptation will be required. The disagreement centers on feasibility and mechanisms, not whether change is coming.

Surprising Gaps & Omissions

Critical topics that most models overlooked

🌍

Environmental Impact

Only 5 of 20 models discussed environmental and climate implications in depth—energy consumption, sustainability, resource extraction for computing infrastructure.

🌐

Geopolitical Competition

Limited coverage beyond US-China dynamics. European approaches, Global South implications, and international coordination mechanisms underexplored.

🔄

Transition Mechanics

Most models jumped to end-states without exploring the 10-20 year transition period. How do we actually get from here to there?

👥

Vulnerable Populations

Minimal discussion of differential impacts on elderly, people with disabilities, rural populations, or different cultural contexts.

Methodological Response Styles

Models demonstrated distinct analytical approaches

Response Style Models Characteristics
Academic GPT-5, Gemini, Manus Citation-focused, extensive references to economic literature, historical precedent emphasis
Technical Julius.ai, GLM-4.5 Specification-centered, implementation mechanisms, quantifiable metrics and scenarios
Philosophical Claude models, Qwen, Gemini Framework-based reasoning, conceptual innovation, ethical implications exploration
Practical Perplexity, Pi.inc, Copilot Summary-oriented, actionable insights, direct applicability to current contexts

"The more recent/advanced models tend toward highly technical or philosophical approaches, while mid-tier models provide more balanced summaries. Model advancement doesn't always equal usefulness for all purposes."

— Analysis Observation

Synthesis & Conclusions

What this diversity of perspectives tells us

✅ Core Consensus

The 20 models agree that AGI will fundamentally disrupt economic theory by: (1) Eliminating traditional labor economics, (2) Creating post-scarcity in material goods, (3) Shifting value to intangible human experiences, (4) Requiring new systems for meaning and resource allocation, (5) Necessitating universal basic income or equivalent.

🔀 Key Divergences

Models significantly disagree on: Timeline (2030-2060+ range), Governance (centralized vs decentralized), Human role (obsolescence vs creative partnership), Risk level (existential threat vs manageable transition), and Implementation (specific mechanisms and pathways).

📚

Value of Diversity

Different frameworks prepare us for different scenarios. Academic rigor grounds speculation in precedent, technical specs enable planning, philosophical depth explores ethics, practical summaries make ideas accessible.

Critical Questions

How do we navigate 10-20 year transition? Can humans find meaning without work? How prevent power concentration? How coordinate globally? Can we develop AGI sustainably?

🎯

Implications for Today

Transformation already beginning: AI automation, digital scarcity experiments, UBI pilots, attention economy maturation, experience-based value creation. Understanding diverse perspectives helps navigate current changes.